German far-right AfD's state election win sparks continental debate on whether populism is ascendant or cyclical
The Alternative for Germany's strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt has reignited concerns about a far-right surge across Europe, though recent electoral patterns suggest the trajectory is uneven.
What happened
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a major victory in Sunday's state election in Saxony-Anhalt, falling short of an absolute majority but potentially still able to form the first far-right state government since the Nazi era. Far-right leaders from Portugal to Austria celebrated the win, while French and Spanish officials warned of growing far-right momentum on the continent. The win occurs amid a broader pattern of far-right and populist anti-immigrant parties gaining influence across Europe, including through participation in governments in Finland, Croatia, and Slovakia, and major gains in 2024 EU Parliament elections.
Context
The AfD victory has revived debate about whether Europe faces a sustained far-right realignment or merely cyclical electoral volatility driven by voter discontent over affordability, security, and trade disputes. The stakes are significant: a sustained far-right ascendancy could fundamentally alter the post-World War II anti-fascist political consensus that has defined European governance. However, the record is mixed. Giorgia Meloni's far-right party won power in Italy but moderated substantially in office, gaining mainstream acceptance and building Europe's most stable government in decades. Conversely, Hungary's Viktor Orbán, the far right's long-standing standard-bearer, lost in a landslide in April, and Britain's Reform UK party, despite dominance in opinion polls and success in local elections, has suffered recent special-election losses and funding questions. The Netherlands saw far-right leader Geert Wilders' coalition collapse when allies rejected his immigration agenda. Upcoming elections in France and Spain in 2025 are positioned as critical tests: Marine Le Pen leads in French polling and opposes the EU and immigration, while Spain's far-right Vox party, despite holding only 32 of 350 parliament seats, has already secured regional governing agreements with the center-right Popular Party.