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U.S. rooftop solar generation quadrupled over past decade, now exceeding 93,000 gigawatthours annually

Confirmed1 source · Oct 16, 2026

Small-scale solar capacity has grown from 18.8 to 93 billion kilowatthours across the country, driven by state incentives and favorable economics in high-sunlight regions.

What happened

The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that small-scale rooftop solar generation increased from 18,812 GWh to 92,979 GWh over the last decade. California leads at 37% of national generation (34,411 GWh), followed by Arizona at 6.2% (5,795 GWh). Texas grew from 391 GWh in 2016 to 5,408 GWh in 2025, while Florida expanded from 205 GWh to 5,198 GWh over the same period. A 25% year-over-year surge occurred in 2022, driven partly by California's Net Energy Metering 2.0 program offering higher export compensation than its successor NEM 3.0. Growth has moderated since 2022, with California and Arizona reporting 8% and 6% year-over-year increases respectively in 2025.

Context

Small-scale solar deployment is concentrated in regions with abundant solar resources, but state incentives—including California's net metering programs, Arizona's 25% tax credit, and property tax exemptions in Texas and Florida—have enabled growth even in lower-irradiance states like New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Illinois. The variation in growth rates reflects changing program structures: California's transition from NEM 2.0 to NEM 3.0 created front-loaded installation activity, while the broader deceleration in growth since 2022 suggests the market may be stabilizing after years of incentive-driven expansion. These trends indicate how state-level policy design directly influences both the pace and geography of residential solar adoption.