US fossil fuel infrastructure surges while renewable growth slows under Trump administration
Plans for new gas-fired power plants have jumped to 30 percent of all new capacity by mid-2026, driven by data center energy demands and policy shifts favoring fossil fuels.
What happened
According to a report from the Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy, fossil fuel infrastructure now accounts for 30 percent of planned new US energy capacity as of the second quarter of 2026, up from 5 percent in 2024. Planned fossil fuel capacity would reach 68 gigawatts by 2030, a 45 percent increase from construction plans six months prior. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has actively impeded renewable energy development through stop work orders, permit blocks, and removal of tax incentives. Renewable energy projects are being canceled at a rate of 4.9 percent compared to 2.9 percent for fossil fuel projects. The shift reflects efforts to meet rising electricity demand from data centers, factories, and electric vehicles, which is climbing faster than it has in over a decade.
Context
The US power sector faces a critical juncture with infrastructure decisions made now potentially locking in energy costs, reliability, and emissions profiles for decades. Though renewables remain cheaper than fossil fuels—solar and wind average $68-69 per megawatt-hour versus $90 for natural gas plants—and wind and solar together generated more electricity than coal for the first time in 2024, policy changes are redirecting investment toward gas infrastructure. If current trends continue, fossil fuels could comprise 70 percent of the development pipeline by decade's end. The stakes include long-term pollution commitments, price volatility risks in natural gas markets, and rising electricity bills as utilities upgrade grids to handle new generation capacity. However, many proposed fossil fuel projects remain contingent on whether actual AI data center energy demand materializes as forecast.