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← Economic Fallout

U.S. Natural Gas Production Forecast to Set Record in 2026

Confirmed1 source · Aug 12, 2026

The EIA projects U.S. marketed natural gas production will average 122.5 Bcf/d in 2026, surpassing 2025's previous record of 118.5 Bcf/d.

What happened

The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts natural gas production will average 122.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, exceeding the 2025 record of 118.5 Bcf/d. In the first half of 2026, production averaged 121.3 Bcf/d, a 4% increase over the same period in 2025. Growth is concentrated in the Permian region (Texas and New Mexico) and the Haynesville region (Louisiana and Texas), with Permian production forecast to average 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026 (6% above 2025) and Haynesville production expected to increase 9% year-over-year.

Context

The United States was the world's largest natural gas producer from 2009 through 2024. Permian production growth is driven primarily by associated gas from oil extraction and supported by crude oil prices—WTI averaged $84/barrel through July 2026, exceeding the region's breakeven prices of $63–$69/barrel. Additionally, pressure declines in Permian reservoirs increase the gas-to-oil ratio, making natural gas easier to extract. Haynesville production is driven by drilling economics tied to Henry Hub natural gas prices (forecast at $3.44/MMBtu in 2026), and benefits from proximity to liquefied natural gas export terminals and major industrial consumers on the Gulf Coast. Both regions demonstrate that sustained production growth depends on commodity price levels relative to regional development costs.