Netanyahu's reelection bid threatened by fragmentation of his own political base
As Israeli elections approach on October 27, Prime Minister Netanyahu faces the risk that multiple small pro-Netanyahu parties will split votes among his supporters rather than consolidate into larger blocs.
What happened
Multiple small pro-Netanyahu parties, including hard-line blocs led by Cabinet ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, are running separately in the October 27 Israeli election. Netanyahu has been urging these parties to merge into larger entities before the September 8 consolidation deadline, warning that vote-splitting could cost him the election. Two parties that ran together in 2022—Smotrich's Religious Zionism and Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power—have so far rejected calls to merge due to rocky relations between the leaders. One small party agreed Wednesday to fold into Smotrich's list, but Netanyahu's core supporters remain fragmented. Netanyahu told Channel 14 that "when we unite, we win. When we split up, we lose," and warned that only he could defeat Hamas and prevent a Palestinian state.
Context
In Israel's parliamentary system, no single party has secured a majority, so coalition-building is necessary to form a government. Parties need only 3.25% of the vote to enter the 120-seat parliament, creating opportunities for smaller parties but also vote fragmentation. Small parties that fail to cross the threshold lose all their votes, effectively benefiting rivals. Netanyahu's defeat in 2021 was partly attributed to smaller parties failing to enter parliament, while his 2022 return to power benefited from rivalries among his opponents. The election serves as a referendum on Netanyahu's 17-year rule and his handling of the October 7 Hamas attacks, subsequent wars, and mass protests. Victory would represent a comeback for the embattled leader; defeat would likely end his three-decade dominance of Israeli politics.