German far-right AfD projects strong regional election victory but faces governing uncertainty
The Alternative for Germany won approximately 44% in a state election Sunday but may fall short of the absolute majority needed to form a government without mainstream party support.
What happened
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was projected to win approximately 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt's regional election Sunday, more than double its 2019 showing of 21%. Projections from ARD and ZDF public television showed the AfD marginally short of the absolute majority in the state legislature needed to govern alone, though results could still shift. The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was projected to fall to 18%, losing about half its support. AfD's national co-leader Alice Weidel called the result "sensational" and said the party had received "a very clear mandate to govern," while the incumbent CDU governor congratulated AfD on becoming the strongest political force. The result raised questions about whether AfD could form what would be the country's first far-right state government since World War II, as mainstream parties maintain a "firewall" refusal to govern with the party.
Context
Saxony-Anhalt is a state in formerly communist eastern Germany where AfD is strongest and where its regional branch is classified by domestic intelligence as a proven right-wing extremist group. AfD has been the largest opposition party in Germany's national parliament for years and has campaigned on anti-migration policies, including "remigration" (deportation of immigrants), opposition to Ukraine aid, and improved relations with Russia. Germany's 16 states hold extensive powers over security, education, and other matters, and their representation in the upper house of parliament is required to approve some national legislation. The result is a significant blow to Merz, whose CDU has led Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years. Unlike other major European democracies, modern Germany has never yet had a far-right or right-wing populist party leading a national, state, or major-city government. A precedent exists: two years ago in neighboring Thuringia, AfD won a state election but did not govern, as the CDU formed a minority government instead.
What's disputed
Whether AfD will achieve the absolute majority needed to govern alone—projections show it marginally short, but final results could change. Whether mainstream parties will maintain their refusal to work with AfD or whether any will break ranks to form a coalition.