California's 22nd District emerges as battleground as Trump support collapses among Latino working-class voters
In one of the nation's poorest congressional districts, Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024 now face economic hardship and policy fallout that has soured their view of the administration.
What happened
Tulare County's 22nd Congressional District, which voted for Donald Trump 59% to 38% over Kamala Harris in 2024, has become a competitive battleground as Trump's approval ratings have fallen 15 points underwater locally. The district is home to working-class voters like Vanessa Martinez, a 26-year-old who works three jobs as a hairdresser, funeral home worker, and subcontractor coordinator but reports being "the brokest I've ever been" despite earning the most money of her life. Martinez has lost federal Pell grants for community college, faces potential loss of Medi-Cal coverage for her Type 2 diabetes, and is contending with immigration enforcement raids affecting families throughout the district. Incumbent Republican congressman David Valadao is being challenged by Democrat Randy Villegas, a community college professor who argues the valley has been abandoned by both parties and cites Valadao's votes for Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act as evidence of an immoderate record.
Context
The 22nd District represents a significant political shift among Latino voters in California's Central Valley, a heavily agricultural region where working-class residents form the majority. Trump's campaign promised economic improvement to this demographic, but rising costs—particularly gas, which in Tulare now averages more than $6 a gallon—combined with reduced federal assistance and increased immigration enforcement have created disillusionment. The region faces widespread public health challenges, including high rates of Type 2 diabetes and cancer among farm workers exposed to pesticides. Democrats have redrawn the electoral map, but Valadao has previously overcome a Democratic registration advantage in six of his last seven elections, making his race genuinely competitive despite structural headwinds for Republicans. The broader significance is whether Latino working-class voters, particularly those who shifted right in 2024, will return to Democratic candidates or remain persuadable for Republicans.