Dangote Refinery Drives Nigerian Petroleum Exports to Seven-Year High
Nigeria's seaborne petroleum product exports have surged sevenfold since 2023, driven by the opening and expansion of the Dangote refinery, reshaping the country's energy market and supply patterns.
What happened
The Dangote refinery, commissioned in January 2024, drove seaborne petroleum product shipments from Nigeria to 561,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, up from 79,000 b/d in 2023. Of those shipments, 350,000 b/d were exported in 2Q26 versus 46,000 b/d in 2023. Maintenance completed in February 2026 increased the refinery's crude oil distillation capacity from 650,000 b/d to 700,000 b/d. Exports to Europe averaged 130,000 b/d in 2Q26 (up from 40,000 b/d in 2025), and exports to African countries reached nearly 120,000 b/d in 2Q26 (up from 89,000 b/d in 2025).
Context
The Dangote refinery's output has fundamentally altered Nigeria's petroleum product market. Domestic shipments within Nigeria increased to 211,000 b/d in 2Q26 from 81,000 b/d in 2025, reducing the country's import dependence from nearly 400,000 b/d in 2023 to less than 130,000 b/d in 2Q26. This increased supply comes at a time when international petroleum product supplies face constraints, particularly from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Dangote Group plans to double refinery capacity by 2028 with a second 750,000-b/d distillation unit, signaling continued expansion of Nigeria's production role in global markets.